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by Andy Extance in Simple Climate
75 years ago Guy Callendar revealed calculations and temperature measurements linking rising 20th century temperatures to burning fossil fuels, helping to lay the foundations for understanding the global warming that is still ongoing today.... Read more »
Callendar, G. (1938) The artificial production of carbon dioxide and its influence on temperature. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 64(275), 223-240. DOI: 10.1002/qj.49706427503
Ed Hawkins and Phil D. Jones. (2013) On increasing global temperatures: 75 years after Callendar. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. info:/
by Andy Extance in Simple Climate
The first evidence that climate change has affected fishing catches, revealed by William Cheung from the University of British Columbia and his team, shows tropical countries are set to be hardest hit.... Read more »
Cheung, W., Watson, R., & Pauly, D. (2013) Signature of ocean warming in global fisheries catch. Nature, 497(7449), 365-368. DOI: 10.1038/nature12156
Payne, M. (2013) Fisheries: Climate change at the dinner table. Nature, 497(7449), 320-321. DOI: 10.1038/497320a
by Andy Extance in Simple Climate
The longest continuous Arctic land sediment core shows that the last time CO2 levels reached current levels, over 2.6 million years ago, North-East Russia was taken was 8°C warmer. ... Read more »
Melles, M., Brigham-Grette, J., Minyuk, P., Nowaczyk, N., Wennrich, V., DeConto, R., Anderson, P., Andreev, A., Coletti, A., Cook, T.... (2012) 2.8 Million Years of Arctic Climate Change from Lake El'gygytgyn, NE Russia. Science, 337(6092), 315-320. DOI: 10.1126/science.1222135
Julie Brigham-Grette, Martin Melles, Pavel Minyuk, Andrei Andreev, Pavel Tarasov, Robert DeConto, Sebastian Koenig, Norbert Nowaczyk, Volker Wennrich, Peter Rosén, Eeva Haltia, Tim Cook, Catalina Gebhardt, Carsten Meyer-Jacob, Jeff Snyder, Ulrike Herzsch. (2013) Pliocene Warmth, Polar Amplification, and Stepped Pleistocene Cooling Recorded in NE Arctic Russia. Science. info:/10.1126/science.1233137
by Andy Extance in Simple Climate
A recent study linking cold winters in Europe to sunspots has updated bad science reaching back to the 19th century for the internet age, reveal Geert Jan van Oldenborgh from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and his colleagues, helped by an unholy alliance between Roger Pielke Sr and Stefan Rahmstorf.... Read more »
Sirocko, F., Brunck, H., & Pfahl, S. (2012) Solar influence on winter severity in central Europe. Geophysical Research Letters, 39(16). DOI: 10.1029/2012GL052412
Pittock, A. B. (1983) Solar variability, weather and climate: An update. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 109(459), 23-55. DOI: 10.1002/qj.49710945903
van Oldenborgh, G., de Laat, A., Luterbacher, J., Ingram, W., & Osborn, T. (2013) Claim of solar influence is on thin ice: are 11-year cycle solar minima associated with severe winters in Europe?. Environmental Research Letters, 8(2), 24014. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024014
by Andy Extance in Simple Climate
Milutin Milanković calculated his way through imprisonment and bombings to show how Earth’s movement helped drive ice ages, revealing how far we’ve strayed from the path we should be following into the next global freeze. ... Read more »
Petrović, A., & Marković, S. (2010) Annus mirabilis and the end of the geocentric causality: Why celebrate the 130th anniversary of Milutin Milanković?. Quaternary International, 214(1-2), 114-118. DOI: 10.1016/j.quaint.2009.10.031
by Andy Extance in Simple Climate
David Stainforth from the London School of Economics and his colleagues have developed a new way to analyse weather data and understand which aspects of climate have changed most on a local level, showing European trends with less than a 2% chance of happening at random.... Read more »
Chapman, S., Stainforth, D., & Watkins, N. (2013) On estimating local long-term climate trends. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 371(1991), 20120287-20120287. DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2012.0287
by Andy Extance in Simple Climate
Creating and averaging thousands of slightly different historic temperature records shows that Northern hemisphere 21st century temperatures are almost certainly unique in the last 600 years, according to Harvard University’s Martin Tingley.... Read more »
Tingley, M., & Huybers, P. (2013) Recent temperature extremes at high northern latitudes unprecedented in the past 600 years. Nature, 496(7444), 201-205. DOI: 10.1038/nature11969
by Andy Extance in Simple Climate
Failure to model a climate fingerprint from 5 million years ago thought to be similar to what we can expect in the warmer future must be resolved, say Lafayette College’s Kira Lawrence and University College London’s Chris Brierley... Read more »
Fedorov, A., Brierley, C., Lawrence, K., Liu, Z., Dekens, P., & Ravelo, A. (2013) Patterns and mechanisms of early Pliocene warmth. Nature, 496(7443), 43-49. DOI: 10.1038/nature12003
by Andy Extance in Simple Climate
Ocean warming is speeding up below 700m, where most previous studies haven’t been able to reach, say Kevin Trenberth from NCAR and his colleagues, which helps explain current surprisingly slow surface warming, and invalidates simple climate models. ... Read more »
Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Kevin E. Trenberth, Erland Källén. (2013) Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content. Geophysical Research Letters. info:/10.1002/grl.50382
by Andy Extance in Simple Climate
Models show that a warmer eastern tropical Atlantic at the end of the 21st century spawns hurricanes that are more likely to head to Europe, with the current western Atlantic origin seemingly becoming less active, with possible consequences for North America. ... Read more »
Haarsma, R., Hazeleger, W., Severijns, C., de Vries, H., Sterl, A., Bintanja, R., van Oldenborgh, G., & van den Brink, H. (2013) More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming. Geophysical Research Letters. DOI: 10.1002/grl.50360
by Andy Extance in Simple Climate
In the 19th century, the newly-divorced Svante Arrhenius threw himself into epic calculations on how CO2 and water vapour could team to control Earth’s temperature, showing the forcing role of CO2 that underlies our understanding of climate change today. ... Read more »
Burgess, E. (1837) "General Remarks on the Temperature of the Terrestrial Globe and the Planetary Spaces; by Baron Fourier." Translation from the French, of Fourier, J. B. J., 1824, "Remarques Générales Sur Les Températures Du Globe Terrestre Et Des Espaces Planétaires. American Journal of Science, 1-20. info:/
Tyndall, P. (1860) The Bakerian Lecture: On the Absorption and Radiation of Heat by Gases and Vapours, and on the Physical Connexion of Radiation, Absorption, and Conduction. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, 100-104. DOI: 10.1098/rspl.1860.0021
Arrhenius, S. (1896) On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground . Philosophical Magazine Series 5, 41(251), 237-276. DOI: 10.1080/14786449608620846
by Andy Extance in Simple Climate
11,000 years during which human civilisation has emerged have not seen temperatures ‘even close’ to what model forecasts predict, a record built by Shaun Marcott from Oregon State University and his teammates shows.... Read more »
Shaun A. Marcott, Jeremy D. Shakun, Peter U. Clark, Alan C. Mix. (2013) A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years. Science, 1198-1201. info:/
by Andy Extance in Simple Climate
A rise in temperatures that caused the last major global defrost has now been placed in the same 150-year window as an accompanying CO2 increase by Frédéric Parrenin from the French National Centre for Scientific Research and his teammates, rather than happening 800 years before the CO2 change as previously thought. ... Read more »
F. Parrenin, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Köhler, D. Raynaud, D. Paillard, J. Schwander, C. Barbante, A. Landais, A. Wegner, J. Jouze. (2013) Synchronous Change of Atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic Temperature During the Last Deglacial Warming. Science, 1060-1063. info:/
by Andy Extance in Simple Climate
Greenhouse gases currently trapped in the frozen soil risk release past a 1.5°C temperature threshold for melting at the permafrost boundary, found in a 500,000 year record collected by Anton Vaks from the University of Oxford, and his colleagues. ... Read more »
A. Vaks, O. S. Gutareva, S. F. M. Breitenbach, E. Avirmed, A. J. Mason, A. L. Thomas, A. V. Osinzev,5 A. M. Kononov, G. M. Henderson. (2013) Speleothems Reveal 500,000-Year History of Siberian Permafrost. Science. info:/
by Andy Extance in Simple Climate
A study calling on 8326 weather stations has confirmed that annual precipitation highs are intensifying by around 7% per 1°C warming, explains University of Adelaide’s Seth West... Read more »
Westra, S., Alexander, L., & Zwiers, F. (2012) Global increasing trends in annual maximum daily precipitation. Journal of Climate, 2147483647. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00502.1
by Andy Extance in Simple Climate
Even as the world warms, stronger high pressures have driven extreme cold events happening since the 1990s in Europe and Asia, says Xiangdong Zhang at University of Alaska, Fairbanks.... Read more »
Zhang, X., Lu, C., & Guan, Z. (2012) Weakened cyclones, intensified anticyclones and recent extreme cold winter weather events in Eurasia. Environmental Research Letters, 7(4), 44044. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044044
by Andy Extance in Simple Climate
Warm years limit flu transmission, but that makes us more susceptible to the virus the following season, explains Sherry Towers at Arizona State University, meaning health authorities have to watch for severe epidemics as climate changes. ... Read more »
Towers, S., Chowell, G., Hameed, R., Jastrebski, M., Khan, M., Meeks, J., Mubayi, A., & Harris, G. (2013) Climate change and influenza: the likelihood of early and severe influenza seasons following warmer than average winters. PLoS Currents. DOI: 10.1371/currents.flu.3679b56a3a5313dc7c043fb944c6f138
by Andy Extance in Simple Climate
150 years since Henry David Thoreau observed them, plants flower three weeks earlier thanks to climate change, find Boston University’s Libby Ellwood and her teammates.... Read more »
Ellwood, E., Temple, S., Primack, R., Bradley, N., & Davis, C. (2013) Record-Breaking Early Flowering in the Eastern United States. PLoS ONE, 8(1). DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0053788
by Andy Extance in Simple Climate
A record heatwave in 2011 completely killed off a seaweed species in one bay and over 1/20 of the area it covers worldwide, finds Dan Smale of the University of Western Australia... Read more »
Smale, D., & Wernberg, T. (2013) Extreme climatic event drives range contraction of a habitat-forming species. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 280(1754), 20122829-20122829. DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2012.2829
by Andy Extance in Simple Climate
Staying under the 2°C warming target demands a serious action rethink, find Steve Davis at University of California, Irvine and team-mates, after updating a method that breaks down the steps needed into “wedges”.... Read more »
Davis, S., Cao, L., Caldeira, K., & Hoffert, M. (2013) Rethinking wedges. Environmental Research Letters, 8(1), 11001. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/011001
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